Application of artificial intelligence techniques in building economic-financial forecast models on high dimensional data sets.
Forecasting in the economic-financial field plays a very important role for the direction and regulation of the government, the development and implementation of business-production strategies of enterprises, investment and consumption of people. So far, the econometric approach based on a combination of mathematics, economic theory and statistical prediction with regression techniques, remains the most popular and important one to make forecasts in the field of economics and finance.
With the increasing economic globalization and the rapid development of science and technology, each event in the field of economics – finance is affected by many other economic-financial and social factors in the country as well as abroad. The current econometric approach to build economic-financial forecasting models is not applicable to input data sets with high dimensions and it is a very big challenge for the implementation of economic-financial forecasts.
The purpose of this report is to present some approachs of application of artificial intelligence techniques in building economic-financial forecasting models on huge input data sets. Artificial intelligence techniques are very useful for dimensionality reduction of input data sets and to improve the quality of forecasting models built under the econometric approach. Some forecasting models in the economic – financial field built arcoding to the mentioned approachs on the real data sets of the economy show that the forecast accuracy by the models is not only increased but also can use these models for evaluation of the impact of economic-financial shocks as well as of many other external factors. Some new researchs by author and some open issues will also be presented and discussed in this report.
Assoc. Prof. Do Van Thanh – Nguyen Tat Thanh University (Vietnam)
Assoc. Prof. PhD. Do Van Thanh was a senior researcher, deputy director of the National Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecasts, Ministry of Planning and Investment, and a part – time lecturer of the Information Technology Department, University of Technology, Hanoi National University. Now he is a full time lecturer, the Information Technology Department, Nguyen Tat Thanh University. He received PhD’s degree in Information Technology in 1996 from the Vietnamese Academy of Science and Technology. His research interests include Data Analysis and Data Mining, Knowledge representation and automatic reasoning, Economic – Financial Analysis and Forecast. He is the author and co-authors of more than 70 peer – reviewed publications concerning the all fields above. He has strong experience in knowledge discovery in databases and building economic-financial forecast models.